Congratulations eBay Sellers, You Just Failed

I would like to offer congrats, kudos and buckets full of sarcasm to the collective eBay seller community for failing to show an ounce of solidarity and a pinch of restraint that yesterday resulted in eBay Inc. once again proving to the world that management was correct by issuing sweeping policy changes and fee increases. I've been using and following eBay for nearly a decade, and prior to yesterday's glorious show of ignorance, eBay sellers were as close as I've ever seen to breaking the shell wide open, but in the end all it took to throw the cause into disarray was a 20 cent listing sale. Sad, very sad.

Prior to the listing sale the tide of events had turned in favor of the sellers for the first time. Meg Whitman is on her way out. Major news outlets were focussed on the plight of the sellers for the first time, and actually were giving come credence to the collective arguments against eBay's constant changes and exorbitant fees. Financial analysts and investment firms were losing confidence in eBay Inc. and many investors were bailing. Low or no-fee competitors of eBay were gaining traction and showing increased listing volume, while listing volume on eBay was down y/y. And while I'd like to have thought it was an eBay conspiracy to artificially inflate listings prior to the big "boycott," it seems as if the sellers really did just list an additional 3-4 million items (depending upon which auction count you use).

The reasons for being somewhat outraged at this are numerous. Most importantly the flood of listings effectively quashed any effect that the scheduled boycott would produce. Even if the boycott were to drop listings in half, it would be for only 1/2 a week, as the current sale listings will overlap the week of the boycott. Yesterday sellers showed that they could not afford to stop listing on eBay for a week or two and that the changes - although unpleasant enough to cry about - were acceptable in the end and something that sellers can and will live with as they continue to open their wallets to pay for ever growing eBay fees. Yesterday also showed that sellers are impatient, naive, incredibly gullible and desperately grasping for revenue and cash flow...

...of the nearly 4 million additional listings added during the fee sale, nearly 3 million will not sell. Conversion rates at eBay have recently been regularly dipping to around 30% on average and sometimes as low as 20% site-wide. Sellers could have waited one week until the new fee structure was in place and paid less in certain categories and gotten free gallery, but instead just blindly threw listings on eBay at the mere mention of a fee sale by management. And I might add, that fee sales and listing promos almost always result in marked decrease in conversion rates. So the sellers that listed items to "take advantage" of the fee sale yesterday will have a lower chance of selling their products and will receive lower ASP's (average selling prices)....all while paying higher upfront fees than if they had just waited a week.

It is for this reason - what I can only see as a catastrophic display of stupidity - that I will no longer offer any attempt to defend eBay sellers while chastising eBay management and their policies. I haven't relied on eBay for income in about a year, despite remaining a full-time ecommerce seller and while showing continued rapid growth. I am your competition. And with no listing fees, no final value fees, and lower payment processing fees (through Google Checkout) while maintaining traffic on par with most eBay sellers in my field, I have an advantage over you, as does every other former eBay seller that decided to actually follow through and make a statement by leaving eBay.

I see no reason whatsoever to continue to support sellers and defend them against eBay's heavy-handed tactics. Yesterday, eBay won, and it was eBay sellers who handed eBay the victory. The impatience that led to a one-day four million listing volume increase is the factor that will cement eBay firmly at the top of the online auction and third-party ecommerce business for years to come. Sellers yesterday effectively accepted the new fees, the new feedback policy and other policies (including new Paypal rules that call for 21 day holds on your money). John Donahoe begins his stint as CEO with wide reaching power that all sellers should shudder at. Due to Meg's recent unpopularity, recent losses in share price and the sellers' collective acceptance of new policies....I feel that Donahoe can pretty much do as he pleases for the foreseeable future. And sellers have only themselves to blame.

I had intended to end with a synopsis of eBay corruption, censorship, cover-ups and missteps over the last decade.....but the hell with it. If you are still selling on eBay and whining about it, nothing you read will make you come to your senses, especially after yesterday's performance.



Anyone needing or wanting to contact me can still do so via email.

Will Vladuz Return for an Anniversary Show Against eBay Inc.?

I haven't seen anyone mention that the newest policy changes at eBay are scheduled for (pretty much) the one year anniversary of the Vladuz attacks of February, 2007. The attacks began several months of turmoil on eBay that included thousands of hijacked accounts and the posting of millions of scam listings as well as the financial information of thousands of eBay users to the community forums.

In the past few months Vladuz has been very quiet. A display of his hacking skills during the scheduled boycott (February 18th-25th) could be a huge blow to the auction giant - as eBay will be under much scrutiny that week to see how members react to the recent changes.

A lot of changes have occurred in the past year that would probably bring another large-scale Vladuz attack into the spotlight. In the past year the tables have turned a bit and the popular sentiment turned on CEO Meg Whitman, ultimately resulting in her "retirement." Also the stock broke through the $40 mark, only to fall back into the mid-$20's. The millions of dollars lost have woke up a lot of eBay investors. Also the slowed growth of the US marketplace continued and was contrasted by the accelerated growth of Amazon, which for the first time in December passed eBay in traffic.

The week of the 18th could be very interesting to say the least. That said, it will probably end on the 25th, anti-climatically. Time will tell.

Sellers to eBay Inc. - Do You Think We Are Stupid?

Yesterday eBay Inc. announced that it would further lower insertion fees for media categories such as books, videos, and video games. eBay is acting as if they have given in to sellers and are offering a concession, and this is how it is being portrayed in the media....despite the fact that these changes were planned for some time and announced less than two weeks ago.

Does eBay think that the sellers who are threatening to boycott are really that stupid? And are they? Many former-eBay sellers who left eBay for the ease, convenience and no-risk / no upfront investment of Amazon are looking back at those sellers left on eBay, rolling their eyes and hoping they are - those that stay on eBay will be less competition at the largest marketplace for media.

Thus far, eBay Inc. is proving that it is anything but stupid with regards to its media categories. The conversion rates in books, movies, dvds, video games and music averages right around 30%. That means that eBay is making money off of 100% of those listings, despite sellers only making money less than 1/3 of the time. Currently the media categories have around 15,000,000 listings and make up more than 10% of the overall listings on the site. That's a whole lot of revenue generation for eBay Inc., and a whole lot of unsold items every day for sellers. Sure, there are millions of products in the media categories that don't sell each day on Amazon, the difference is that on Amazon, sellers aren't out any money when their item doesn't sell. Whereas on eBay, sellers collectively pay around a million dollars a week to not sell their products.

As Boycott of eBay Inc. Nears, Sellers Threaten Guerrilla Tactics

eBay Inc. has heard the threats of seller boycotts and "strikes" before, in fact, they hear it to some degree with every fee increase. This time though, it looks like the threats are making an impact in the mainstream media. The reason for the widespread press about the planned boycott this time may have roots in the investment and financial community - as investors are less-than-thrilled that eBay Inc. shares have fallen almost $15 over the course of the last several months. After years of conservative guidance and slowing growth, investors are feeling a bit like eBay sellers at the moment - feeling betrayed and even as if they've been outright lied to.

I've seen many boycott "attempts" and they all have been less than spectacular, but this time the media attention is focused on the deteriorating moral of sellers and many sellers are planning to stage guerrilla attacks on the auction giant during the week of the strike. The following are some plans I've seen discussed concerning some sellers' plans during the week of the boycott (February 18-25), while I can understand the frustration of sellers, I am not endorsing the following actions (just reporting on them) as some may be less than legal.

1. Attack eBay Employee Auctions: Some sellers are threatening to bid up items and use eBay's BIN feature to "purchase" products from actual eBay employees that are selling items on the site. eBay employees need to identify themselves as such in the item description area and their products and user ID's are easily found by doing a search in titles and descriptions for "ebay employee." The rumor is that as revenge for the new feedback system, some sellers will "purchase" items from the employees, just to leave negative feedback. (Take a look at the items that the eBay employees have listed, and see how many are violating the shipping policy by charging a handling fee above the cost of packaging materials).

2. Disrupt the Market by Placing Thousands of Bids: There's an old trick that scammers seem to do for shits-and-giggles, place thousands and thousands of bids and then just don't pay. Not only does it cause headaches for sellers who have to file a bunch of UID's, sometimes some sellers will actually ship the items without payment. I've seen reports that some boycotters are planning this tactic for the week of the strike, both as revenge against eBay and against any scabs that cross the cyber-picket line to sell items during the strike.

3. List Fraudulent Auctions During Strike - Then Claim a Hijacking: Some sellers are suggesting that all participants of the strike list obviously fraudulent auctions for high ticket items during the strike to put a strain on eBay's Trust & Safety department. The plan is to upload an enormous volume of auctions, let them run a couple of days and then call/contact eBay stating that the account has a victim of a scammer and that it was hijacked. In cases of reported hijacking, eBay ends the listings and locks the account so that a new password can be added - eBay also resets the seller account of any hijacking victim back to the point prior to the fraudulent listings. This plan could prove terribly troublesome for eBay, as disproving a hijacking would be difficult especially with a large portion the seller base upset over new changes. The plan also backs eBay Inc. into a corner. Refusing to end the auctions or to deal with the alleged hijackings would be a public relations nightmare if any innocent victims of actual hijackings were not dealt with properly. Failure by eBay to cancel reported listings could result in innocent buyers being victims of real fraudulent listings and result in those buyers being scammed out of thousands of dollars.

4. Leave Without Paying Your Bill: Some sellers who claim to have ended their auctions, vow to never return and some are vowing never to pay their seller fees. eBay Inc. generates roughly 2/3 of its revenue from eBay.com listings. Any sellers who use this tactic will directly affect eBay's bottom line. If enough sellers do it, the Q1 earnings call would be very entertaining.

The preceding plans could have a huge impact on eBay if sellers were to follow through with their plans. So are there ways to take a jab at eBay legally and without breaking eBay policy? The following options have been bantered about by sellers as options for just that, with no apparent policy violations associated with them.

1. Withdraw All Money From Paypal Accounts: Disgusted by management's policy changes, some eBayers are calling for their fellow sellers to withdraw all money from Paypal and send it to their own banks. One of eBay's benchmarks of success is that sellers have over $1 billion in Paypal accounts. If this were to suddenly change, it would show that not only are sellers upset, but that confidence in Paypal - as well as eBay Inc. as a whole - has been shaken.

2. Shop Somewhere Else on the Web: eBay isn't the only game in town. While eBay's growth has slowed, ecommerce as a whole continues to expand rapidly. For the week of the boycott, don't just stop giving eBay your business, give it to another business. There are many former eBay sellers who have already left eBay and set up their own shops on the internet. If you haven't shopped beyond the confines of eBay, perhaps now is a good time to go window shopping....you just might be surprised at the selection and price that other sites are offering.

3. Cease From Using Other eBay Inc. Services: eBay.com is not eBay Inc.'s only revenue generator. A boycott of eBay while still using other eBay services is weak. For the week of the strike refrain from using: Paypal, Skype, Stubhub, Stumbleupon, Half.com, Rent.com, Shopping.com, eBayExpress, Kijiji.com etc.

After witnessing numerous boycotts of eBay fail in the past I was at first skeptical that this boycott could accomplish anything. I'm starting to change my mind. The mainstream media has picked up on the massive unrest and unlike in the past, now there are viable alternatives to eBay for many sellers in many categories. Previous boycott attempts ended with virtually no press and with sellers crawling back to eBay in droves, heads hung down with shame on their faces. A lot has changed since the last boycott attempt and there are now more options for those wanting to leave eBay, and those options are now much more user friendly and able to provide much more traffic to sellers than in the past.

Anti-eBay Site Bombarded With Bots - Is eBay Inc. to Blame?

Firemeg.com has for the past several days been bombarded with with bots, hits and false click-throughs on paid advertisements. The past few days have shown a marked increase in "traffic" - up to 10 times the normal volume. One can only wonder if it has anything to do with the recent changes in policy at eBay Inc. I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but it seems odd that after almost three years, FireMeg is now being bombarded with bots.....and this comes at a time when a new CEO has assumed the helm and also it comes after a three month hiatus from posting articles to this blog and updates to the site.

For the first time in its existence, eBay Inc. has lost grip of the leash that holds back its customers (eBay sellers) and also control of the mainstream media. In recent months we've seen major news outlets and financial publications wonder aloud how the company would fare under new leadership, and for the first time questioning of Meg Whitman's abilities reached the mainstream. The stock price has fallen and the current sell-through rate is at around 30% sitewide for eBay.com - a 25% decrease in the past two weeks. Sellers are planning to "strike" from all eBay activity beginning on February 18th. The decreased moral of analysts is only eclipsed by the crushed moral of the sellers on the site.

In the next few days, I will look into the bombardment of FireMeg.com further, but at present it appears that the attacks are coming from proxy servers/IP addresses. In the meantime, I will pose this question....Who has the motive to issue such attacks? FireMeg.com has a relatively low volume of traffic and advertising revenue when compared to other sites that I own, no sensitive information is contained on the site, and no user info is stored on the server....so is thinking that eBay Inc. may be behind the attacks so far fetched?

Protests & Boycotts of eBay Inc. are Gaining Steam

The big boycott week seems to be scheduled for February 18th - 25th. Sellers are downright pissed off about the recent changes in policy and are planning not to list items on eBay.com during that time period. Despite the pro-eBay side saying that the boycotts will not work, sellers seemed poised to try one, or at least talk really loudly about it. YouTube has been starting to get videos about the boycott as well.

This morning both PSU and Medved show that listings increased over yesterday. The boycott remains two weeks away. Many sellers have said that they are making a last ditch effort to unload their inventory before the boycott begins. Doing so obviously shows the world the opposite of what their boycott is intended for - it shows that these sellers need eBay, and the increased listings up until the boycott prove it.

Should the listing volume on eBay increase during the boycott. eBay will be able to claim an administrative victory and claim that their new policies were justified and successful, which should be every sellers nightmare, because it opens the door for more unchecked fee increases by management in the future.

eBay Inc. Shows Listing Volume Increase

Dear Pissed Off Sellers,
You are playing into eBay management's scheme. I just checked the PSU numbers and listings are up. You can't talk one game and then play another and expect everyone else to carry the bag. Listing are up since eBay lied about the fee increase and took away your ability to leave negative feedback.

To be brutally honest....you are making yourselves look like utter fools.....and making eBay Inc. stronger. You are proving that eBay management made the right choices with policy. You're showing analysts that you are weak minded nobodies that just like to whine.

If you want to make a dramatic point, cancel your auctions and go elsewhere....PERIOD.